Saskatchewan Farmland's Long-Term Trend: Why Canada's Largest Landowner Says It's "Not at the Top Yet"
After taking Saskatchewan farmland from roughly $345/acre to several thousand dollars an acre over fifteen years, Canada's largest farmland owner is still buying — and still bullish. This is the structural logic behind that conviction: five core drivers that nearly all point the same direction, a clear-eyed look at the regional risks, and what it means for landowners and investors.
On June 23, 2026, in front of a room of several hundred farmers, Canada's largest farmland owner Robert Andjelic said something that quieted the room — the economy remains turbulent, but land is the one certain bet.
The weight of that statement comes from who said it. Andjelic began buying Saskatchewan farmland at scale around 2010, when the average price was roughly $345/acre. Today that same land is worth several thousand dollars an acre, and he holds well over 200,000 acres — making him the largest private farmland owner in Canada.
What makes it more notable is the timing. FCC data show Saskatchewan farmland values rising 15.7% in 2023, 13.1% in 2024, and 9.4% in 2025 — three consecutive years of strong appreciation during a period of tight credit. And it is after all of that appreciation that Andjelic chose to remain bullish.
This article isn't about sentiment — it's about logic. Below, we break down the five core drivers of Saskatchewan farmland value, project where they're heading over the next decade, cite Andjelic's specific arguments, and honestly address the risks and the counter-case — because any trend analysis that only tells the good news isn't worth trusting.
1The five core drivers of farmland value
Farmland prices don't move randomly. They're driven by a handful of clear structural forces. Understand these five, and you can judge the trend for yourself rather than relying on anyone's "prediction."
This is the most fundamental long-term driver. Global population keeps growing, and dietary upgrades across Asia, the Middle East and Africa steadily lift demand for grain and protein. Pulses in particular — lentils and peas — are growing faster as the world shifts toward plant protein, and Saskatchewan is one of the world's leading pulse-producing regions. The province produced a record 41.9 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds in 2025, up 13.7% year over year. The underlying logic: Saskatchewan holds roughly 40% of Canada's cultivated farmland — a strategic asset for global food security. As long as the world needs to eat, this demand foundation stays solid.
Demand is rising, but supply is nearly fixed. Arable land is a non-renewable resource — the global stock keeps shrinking through urbanization, desertification and soil degradation. In Saskatchewan, new arable land is extremely limited; bringing one new acre into production through bush clearing costs roughly $1,200–$1,700 all-in, which itself sets a "replacement cost" floor under existing cropland. Meanwhile, existing owners are increasingly reluctant to sell — holding costs are low, the long-term outlook is up, and the land produces rent. FCC notes that appreciation is concentrated in quality farmland precisely because it is "in strong demand and limited supply."
Rates are the largest short-term swing factor. High rates raise the cost of borrowing to buy land and pressure prices; falling rates support them. Andjelic showed sharp judgment here — he publicly advised locking in long-term farmland loans back in 2023, advice that proved correct as those who fixed their rates saved substantially over those on variable terms.
This is a point Andjelic returns to repeatedly: the U.S. dollar has lost roughly 98% of its purchasing power since 1920. Holding wealth as cash means watching it erode over time. What truly resists currency debasement is hard assets — and farmland is the most distinctive kind: it not only holds value, it produces ongoing cash flow (rent) while supply stays limited.
Over the past two decades, the buyer base for Saskatchewan farmland has fundamentally changed. In 2002, investor-held Saskatchewan farmland was close to zero; by 2018 it approached one million acres. Hedge funds, pension funds and other institutions began including Saskatchewan farmland in global asset allocations. These buyers don't worry about short-term swings, hold for the long term, and rarely sell — which tightens supply further and provides long-term price support.
2Where do these drivers head over the next ten years?
Forecasting a trend isn't about guessing prices — it's about judging the direction of the underlying drivers. If most point the same way, the trend holds.
| Core driver | Current state | 10-year outlook | Effect on land value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global food demand | Rising | Accelerating | Positive ↑↑ |
| Arable supply | Tight | Tightening further | Positive ↑↑ |
| Interest rates | Easing from highs | Long-term down | Positive ↑ |
| Currency debasement | Ongoing | Ongoing | Positive ↑ |
| Investor inflows | Accelerating | Continued inflow | Positive ↑ |
| Climate change | Regional effect | SK relative beneficiary | Neutral-positive ↗ |
| Farm succession pressure | Increasing | Continuing | Supply release ↗ |
This is the point many overlook. As the planet warms, the agricultural belt is shifting north. For a northern province like Saskatchewan, that's a long-term tailwind: a longer growing season, a wider range of viable crops, and an improving competitive position as traditional growing regions in the U.S. Midwest and southern Europe face heat and drought stress. Climate change also brings extreme-weather risk — the wet 2024 spring is a reminder — but the long-term structural trend favours Saskatchewan in the global agricultural map.
Saskatchewan's farming population is aging, and the next generation is less inclined to take over. On one hand, this releases more land for sale (short-term supply increase); on the other, that land mostly flows to expansion-minded large farms and institutional investors rather than leaving the market. FCC observes a clear trend of owners selling to their tenants, while expansion-oriented producers use the built-up equity in existing land to finance more. The result: land moves from fragmented to concentrated ownership, which actually reinforces price support over the long run.
3Andjelic's three specific arguments
In the June 23, 2026 interview, Andjelic didn't just express optimism — he made three specific, checkable claims.
Compared to equivalent-quality cropland in the U.S., Europe and Australia, Saskatchewan farmland is still priced low. Three years of FCC data support this — the province has appreciated steadily, yet its starting point and absolute price remain low among the world's quality cropland. In other words, the rise hasn't yet exhausted its "value gap" status.
This point is especially instructive. As one of North America's largest farmland investors, Andjelic deliberately holds no U.S. farmland at all. The reasons include tariff and trade-policy uncertainty, currency risk, and already-elevated valuations in the U.S. farmland market. He has concentrated his chips in Canada — and especially Saskatchewan.
On the Monette Farms collapse (129,000 Saskatchewan acres heading to court-ordered sale), the market worried it would hit land prices. Andjelic's read: the land supply from a large bankruptcy gets absorbed quickly and doesn't change the long-term trend. When a large farm falls, its land is picked up by expansion-minded producers and investors — demand remains strong.
The most objective part of the interview was a vote among the several hundred farmers present — once before Andjelic laid out his case, and once after:
bullish on SK farmland
bullish (+23 points)
4Risks and the counter-case — the honest other side
Any trend analysis that only tells the good news isn't worth trusting. The bullish case for Saskatchewan farmland is strong, but you need to understand the risks too — that's what makes a decision rational.
How should you weigh these risks? They're all real, but note a key distinction: most of these risks are short-term and regional (valuation swings, regional divergence, commodity cycles, extreme weather), while the bullish logic is long-term and structural (food demand, land scarcity, currency debasement). That means: choosing the right region, the right parcel, and the right entry method lets you enjoy the long-term trend while sidestepping most of the short-term and regional risks — which is exactly where professional tools and a market "health check" mechanism earn their value.
5The conclusion — why is Andjelic still buying?
Back to the question we opened with: why does someone who has already taken land from $345 to several thousand dollars an acre keep buying after a tenfold gain?
The answer isn't that he can predict next year's price — it's that he sees a structural long-term trend resting on three pillars: food demand is inelastic (people will always need to eat), land is finite (arable land is non-renewable and supply only tightens), and currency is debasing (hard assets are the most reliable hedge). When all three hold simultaneously — and they do — the long-term trend for Saskatchewan farmland holds. That's why Canada's largest farmland owner stays bullish even when everyone else thinks it has "risen too much."
"Confirmation of a trend often happens while most people are still hesitating. By the time 24% becomes 47%, and then the majority, the best entry point may already be behind you."
— ExtrAcre FarmlandBut understanding the trend isn't the same as buying blindly. The trend is a tailwind — you still need to pick the right parcel, avoid the pitfalls, and use the right entry method. The safest way in is to lock in the rent first, then complete the purchase — letting a real market (competitive rental bidding) verify the land's value for you, so the long-term trend becomes your tailwind rather than your gamble.